Gartner er på gaden med endnu en omgang Hype Cycles.
Ifølge Gartners hjemmeside:
Hype Cycles and Priority Matrices offer a snapshot of the relative maturity of technologies, IT methodologies and management disciplines. They highlight overhyped areas against those that are high impact, estimate how long technologies and trends will take to reach maturity, and help organizations decide when to adopt.
Hype Cycles giver altså et billede af, hvad der er oppe i tiden, hvad der er på vej op, og hvad der er på vej ned.
Fra Understanding Hype Cycles:
- “Technology Trigger”
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.- “Peak of Inflated Expectations”
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.- “Trough of Disillusionment”
Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.- “Slope of Enlightenment”
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.- “Plateau of Productivity”
A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
Hype Cycles kan altså bruges til at finde ud af, hvor der skal satses på nye teknologier som f.eks. RSS eller web 2.0. F.eks. være påpasselig med ikke at satse for hårdt på teknologier, der ligger før Inflated Expectations-kurven, men vente til produkterne er blevet mere modne, gerne i slutningen af Trough of Disillusionment eller i starten af Slope of Enlightenment. Så er man med på det nye, men uden at være en del af Inflated Expectations, som jo nærmest gør ondt i ordets blotte betydning.
